Wednesday, October 25, 2006

Ten Points Ahead and the Guardian Still Don't Get It!

Julian Glover clutches at straws

Labour's poll rating has got that sinking feeling, falling in today's Guardian/ICM survey to 29%, a level it has hit only once before, in May 1987.

And Guttersnipe here thinks that “sinking feeling” implies that we should continue to see

On today's score, Mr Brown's spell in Downing Street, assuming it begins next year, might be rather brief. The numbers would certainly leave David Cameron as the leader of the largest party in parliament, even if they fall short of promising him a proper majority.

Actually according to
Electoral Calculus they actually display a conservative majority of 38. But when have the Guardian ever been concerned about facts and research?

Yet there is another side to the story. For a start, just a year and a half before she won that third election in 1987, it was Thatcher who was in the doldrums, on 29% and in third place behind the Alliance. She bounced back, and so could Labour, especially since it has a new leader to look forward to and can hold off another election for almost four years. By 2010, Cameron may not look so glossy.

Well maybe they could… However given that Brown appears to be Blair without the smile, and that currently ALL Labour’s leadership candidates fall a good 10 points below Cameron with Brown being the best performer I doubt very much that Cameron’s glossy look will fade any time soon. Although given that they’re closing hospitals in Tory wards, they might be able to bully themselves back in.

Frankly they were elected in last time because the country did not feel that there was a better alternative, a great many people now feel differently.

1 comment:

james higham said...

...She bounced back, and so could Labour...
How? They had the Iron Lady, Labour have Brown.